Six years is a long time to own a car. On the numbers below, it's also long enough for the asking price of some models to fall by two-thirds.
Since May, AdSnap's auto section has been collecting ss.lv listings, and by mid-September there were close to 79,000 of them. That's enough to line models up against each other and see whose price drops fastest with age. Here are the ten where the gap is widest.
The ten
| # | Model | Price, 5-7 yrs | Price, 11-13 yrs | Gap | Listings, 5-7 yrs | Listings, 11-13 yrs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Peugeot 208 | €11,945 | €3,750 | -68.6% | 34 | 35 |
| 2 | Peugeot 2008 | €14,970 | €5,200 | -65.3% | 76 | 61 |
| 3 | Škoda Superb | €18,500 | €6,495 | -64.9% | 107 | 40 |
| 4 | BMW X6 | €49,940 | €17,945 | -64.1% | 36 | 82 |
| 5 | Toyota Corolla | €15,990 | €5,800 | -63.7% | 128 | 31 |
| 6 | Kia Ceed | €9,600 | €3,525 | -63.3% | 53 | 44 |
| 7 | Hyundai i30 | €10,045 | €3,870 | -61.5% | 38 | 44 |
| 8 | Volvo XC90 | €33,670 | €13,000 | -61.4% | 52 | 68 |
| 9 | Porsche Cayenne | €58,000 | €22,500 | -61.2% | 35 | 43 |
| 10 | Volvo V60 | €16,670 | €6,992 | -58.1% | 89 | 276 |
Prices are medians.
How this was counted
For each model we took two age groups: cars aged 5-7 (2019-2021 model years) and 11-13 (2013-2015). For each group we took the median asking price - half the sellers ask more, half ask less. The gap between the two medians is the percentage in the table.
A few caveats up front. These are asking prices, not what the cars sold for - nobody sees that, us included. The older group has roughly twice the mileage, which is part of the gap. The listings are from ss.lv, published between late May and mid-September. Only models with at least 30 listings in both groups made the cut, which left 43.
Across all 43, the typical gap is 53.5%. Put simply, an 11-13-year-old car is usually asking about half of what the same model asks at 5-7. The ten above are well past that.
Every one of them had a redesign in between
The one thing all ten share: the model changed generation somewhere between the two age groups. So the older car in the listing isn't just older, it's the previous shape, and buyers pay less for the previous shape. Whether that explains the whole gap, this data can't say. What it can say is that it holds for all ten without exception.
The two Peugeots show it most clearly. Both the 208 and the 2008 got a new generation in 2019, and in the listings that's a step: a 2019 208 asks around €7,000, a 2020 one close to €15,000. Every car in the older group is first-generation, asking €3,000-4,000. One caveat on the 208: with 34 and 35 listings it's right at the floor, so the exact percentage could move.
Škoda Superb is the odd one out, because the Superb has a reputation as the sensible family car, not the one that sheds value. Same explanation though. The third generation arrived in 2015, so the 2013 and 2014 cars are the old shape at €5,000-6,000, and the 2015 cars already ask around €11,000.
The Volvo XC90 is the same story stretched further. The first generation was built from 2002, the second came in 2015. A 2014 XC90 is, underneath, a 2002 design, however well it's been kept.
Where the most money goes
In percentage terms, the Porsche Cayenne, BMW X6 and that same XC90 look like the rest of the list. In euros they're a different matter. A 5-7-year-old Cayenne asks around €58,000, an 11-13-year-old one around €22,500. That's a gap of €35,500, the biggest in the list. The X6 is close to €32,000, the XC90 just over €20,000. Here too there's a generation change in between: the third Cayenne went into production in August 2017, the current X6 in August 2019.
The ones you wouldn't expect
Toyota Corolla comes with a footnote. The 2013-2015 Corolla is a saloon; the hatchback in Europe was called Auris back then. In 2019 Toyota brought the Corolla name back to the hatchback too, as an all-new generation. So this is old saloon versus new hatchback. The younger group is big, 128 listings; the older one is only 31.
Kia Ceed and Hyundai i30 are both compact cars, both changed generation around the same time (i30 at the end of 2016, Ceed in 2018), and the picture is nearly identical: around €10,000 at 5-7 years, under €4,000 at 11-13.
Volvo V60 is last in the ten but has by far the most listings behind it, 89 and 276, which makes it the most solid number here. The second generation arrived in 2018. Oddly, the younger V60s have a median mileage of 211,000 km, more than any other model in the list, and the price still sits well above the old generation.
Something else that stands out: there isn't a single rare model here losing value because nobody wants it. In the 5-7 group the Corolla is one of the five most-listed models overall, and the Superb isn't far behind.
What to do with this
If you're buying a 5-7-year-old car and plan to keep it another six years, today's listings suggest the asking price will be about half of today's by then. For these ten, less than half.
A car built right before a redesign is cheaper for a reason. It stays cheaper when you come to sell it.
You can check your own model in the auto section. Each model page has prices by model year, worked out the same way, but from the last month's listings only, so the numbers will differ a little.
Next up is the opposite list: the models that lose value slowest. The Peugeot 308 is on it, as it happens, so Peugeot isn't a simple story.